Sales among limited-service burger chains remained weak in 2025 amid consumer weakness and a shift to chicken or other items. But higher-quality growth chains are grabbing share and making noise.

It’s tough to be a burger chain these days. Beef costs are through the roof amid one of the most extensive value pushes the industry has ever seen. And everybody seems to want to eat more chicken.

Sales among limited-service burger chains grew just 2%, lower than menu price inflation. It’s also the second straight year of generally anemic growth for a sector that accounts for about a quarter of the sales generated by chains on the Technomic Top 500 Chain Restaurant Report.

But within that space there are winners and losers. Some brands are resonating with consumers right now. Some are not.

For the most part, upstart concepts with high-quality reputations have done well. Legacy chains that have struggled to keep consumer interest have lost share.

Many larger, older chains are ceding share to smaller upstarts. McDonald’s, of course, remains the dominant player, representing close to half the $113 billion in limited-service burger chain sales last year, according to the Top 500. And it has averaged 4.6% annual growth the past four years, including 3% in 2025.

But among the weakest performers include such legacy brands such as Steak n Shake (2.8% system sales decline in 2025), Hardee’s (-5%), Checkers (-9.9%), Carl’s Jr. (-6%), Sonic (-2.6%), A&W (-3.8%), Rally’s (-6.6%), White Castle (-6.7%), Fatburger (-8.1%), Krystal (-2.9%) and Jack in the Box (-4.3%).

Wendy’s, the second-largest burger chain in the U.S., lost its status as a Top 5 restaurant chain after its system sales fell 5.2%. The company almost symbolically was overtaken by the beverage chain Dunkin’.

On the other hand, there are numerous larger, high-growth brands that are taking share.

Shake Shack (15.2% system sales growth), Culver’s (14.2%) and In-n-Out (9.6%) have taken considerable share in the burger space along with brands like Freddy’s (5.3%) and Whataburger (4.6%). Smaller brands like Hopdoddy (6.2%), Cookout (8.1%) and Jack’s Family Restaurants (7.2%) have also thrived.

Consider this: Sonic, the drive-in burger chain owned by Inspire Brands, is the fourth-largest burger chain in the U.S. Culver’s is No. 5.

At their current rates of growth, Culver’s should overtake Sonic within the next two years.

Indeed, if we assume that Culver’s and Shake Shack keep their average rates of growth from the past four years—a decent assumption, given that they’ve generally kept that up for some time now—both will more than double by 2030. And they will take substantial market share.

Culver’s, for instance, currently accounts for 3.85% of the burger chain market. It will have 6.62% of the market by 2030 at current growth rates. For Shake Shack, that share will jump from 1.32% to 2.48%.

To be sure, consumers often shift allegiances to hotter, younger brands with innovative business models and different offerings. Consider chicken, where older, bone-in chains like KFC have long ago given way to brands like Chick-fil-A or Raising Cane’s.

But unlike chicken, where the upstarts typically serve different types of products, many of these newer burger chains simply offer a product with a better reputation from a more service-oriented model.

Shake Shack, for instance, has averaged 18.5% annual sales growth since 2022, more than any other burger chain. It was started based on the “Enlightened Hospitality” model of cofounder Danny Meyer, who built his reputation with fine-dining establishments in New York City.

“Shake Shack is bringing the experience of a $25 burger to a lot of people who don’t typically get to eat $25 burgers,” the chain’s CEO, Rob Lynch, said in a January interview.

Culver’s, meanwhile, has averaged 14% growth over the past four years and is now a Top 25 restaurant chain, bigger than such burger stalwarts as Jack in the Box, Hardee’s and Carl’s Jr.

The chain was modeled after supper clubs in its home state of Wisconsin and has become popular for its table service model and smashed “Butterburgers.”

Culver’s operators typically come up through the ranks and are required to be in the restaurants. Cofounder Craig Culver once said in an interview that if your workers can’t recognize the CEO, the CEO is doing it wrong.

That service level provides a strong value for the chain, even though it doesn’t push value meals and discounts the way many of its competitors do.

“We’re not a cheap brand,” Julie Fussner, Culver’s CEO, said in an interview last year for the A Deeper Dive podcast. “You take your family to a Culver’s and you get an amazing meal and a great experience. But we’re providing a value to that.

“The only way to do that is if we never lose present, engaged, owner-operators. So that is a non-negotiable for us.”

Source https://www.restaurantbusinessonline.com/financing/burger-business-culvers-shake-shack-are-grabbing-market-share