While the expectation is modest growth, some factors such as lower gas prices, tax cuts, and the FIFA World Cup could provide a much-needed boost

During a recent interview at the annual ICR Conference in Orlando, William Blair analyst Sharon Zackfia said that although the industry saw some improvement in December compared to a curveball-filled 2025, most outlooks remain conservative.

“This is good. As an analyst, you don’t want to see a lot of Pollyannas. (You want to see) prudent outlooks,” she said. “Hopefully things will get better, but there is still some uncertainty.”

Prudent is, indeed, good, and no doubt this environment is still tough. One operator recently told me that it hasn’t been this challenging for the industry since the Great Recession in 2008-09, inclusive of the 2020 COVID year. That’s because during COVID, everyone was going through the same thing, consumers were more forgiving of operators trying to stay afloat, they were also seeking comfort through restaurants, and it was a definitive crisis. Now, the industry and its consumers are increasingly bifurcated and selective, there’s very little room for forgiveness if an experience isn’t up to par, and there seem to be mini crises or threats of crises regularly.

“The best I can expect is that maybe this year is more apples to apples — just getting used to the noise. It may not get quieter, but at least it will be comparable,” Zackfia said. “Maybe we don’t have a worse news flow than we had in 2025.”

In other words, it’s smart not to be too Pollyannish, but we think finding reasons for optimism is never a bad thing. Here are some green shoots for the industry to look forward to this year.

Major events
Super Bowl Sunday, Valentine’s Day, and March Madness always generate sales and traffic lifts for the industry, especially full-service concepts. This year, we can also bank on the significant potential of the FIFA World Cup, in which the United States is a host country in June and July. The FIFA World Cup is largely considered the biggest sporting event in the world, and the organization expects a record 6.5 million total attendees across 104 matches in Canada, Mexico, and the United States. That’s not counting the billions more who plan on watching the event remotely. In 2022, the World Cup reached 5 billion fans.

Tax relief
In 2026, there will be several tax relief measures introduced as part of President Trump’s “One Big Beautiful Bill,” signed into law last year. These measures are expected to reduce taxable income among most middle-income earners, families, and seniors, which could bolster spending among lower-and-middle-income consumers who have pulled back from restaurants the most throughout the past year-plus. Bloomberg Intelligence expects these tax-law changes, as well as more anticipated Federal Reserve interest-rate cuts, to benefit quick-service chains such as McDonald’s and Taco Bell.

Gas prices are down
In December, U.S. gas prices fell below $3 per gallon, marking its lowest level since 2021. According to the U.S. Energy Information Administration, Americans use about 135 billion gallons of gas per year, and every 50-cent increase results in a $68 billion impact on consumer spending. Conversely, lower gas prices boost consumer disposable income and lead to more spending at restaurants and other leisure activities.

A favorable lap
2025 didn’t go as anyone expected, with traffic and sales softer than forecast and driven by every factor imaginable — wildfires, blizzards, widespread illness, tariffs, the federal government shutdown, lower immigration levels, name it.

“We’re lapping a lot of crap, so there should definitely be easy comparisons this year,” Zackfia said. “But my job would be so simple if it was only about comps. There are a lot of crossroads right now. It is just a market-share slug fest out there.”

Some sentiment improvement
The National Federation of Independent Business Index showed a rise in small business optimism in December with a score of 99.5 as respondents reported they expect better business conditions and less uncertainty this year. Though the index is 5.3% lower than a year ago, it remains above the 52-year average of 98.

Further, consumer confidence rose sequentially in January to 54, versus 52.9 in December. According to the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index, this slight improvement was driven by lower inflation expectations. However, and to maintain a pragmatic-versus-Pollyanish tone, the index remains low compared to historical levels (reaching the 90s in the late 2010s, for instance).

That said, the restaurant industry has been swimming upstream against several factors throughout the past five-plus years, many of which have been unprecedented (COVID, historically high wages and beef prices, historically low labor levels, etc.). So, while the tailwinds that are expected in the coming months may not be robust, they’re tailwinds, nonetheless, and we’ll take it.

Contact Alicia Kelso at Alicia.Kelso@informa.com

Source https://www.nrn.com/restaurant-insights/key-tailwinds-for-the-restaurant-industry-in-2026